The Sale of a Lifetime by Harry S. Dent Jr.
- Introduction
- only safe assets are cash and the safest long-term bonds
- How to identify a bubble (56-57)
- 1 - bubbles are cyclical
- 2 - we predict linearly when it is cyclical and exponential; we are blind to bubbles which helps to inflate them;
- 3 - bubbles are exponential
- 4 - bubbles don't correct, they burst
- 5 - bubbles fall back to or near the point where they started
- 6 - preventing a bubble burst is impossible
- 7 - once bust, it takes years for the excess to be purged from the system
- History of bubbles
- Predicting bubbles
- skipped most of this, he reviews cycles of generations (39-yrs), geopolitics (35-yrs), innovation (45-yr) and boom/bust (10-yr)
- spending wave a function of births over time and spending throughout lifetime
- Biggest bubble of our lifetime
- Profiting from the sale of a lifetime
- Investments
- Invest in:
- High-quality, long-term government bonds (T-bills)
- high-quality CDs
- AAA corporate bonds
- Don't invest in:
- utility stocks, junk bonds, stocks, real estate, Gold/commodities
- Business
- cash and cash flow are critical to surviving
- identify segments you can dominate
- clearly define your customers
- be lean and mean
- defer major capital expenditures
- focus on short-term investments
- sell non-strategic real estate
- identify weakest competitors to pick up their assets when they go under
- fire your bottom tier of employees
- Real Estate
- keep real estate only if you plan to stay in it for many years
- Emerging Markets
- invest in India and Southeast Asia
re Economics, Investing