The Sale of a Lifetime by Harry S. Dent Jr.

  • Introduction

    • only safe assets are cash and the safest long-term bonds

  • How to identify a bubble (56-57)

    • 1 - bubbles are cyclical

    • 2 - we predict linearly when it is cyclical and exponential; we are blind to bubbles which helps to inflate them;

    • 3 - bubbles are exponential

    • 4 - bubbles don't correct, they burst

    • 5 - bubbles fall back to or near the point where they started

    • 6 - preventing a bubble burst is impossible

    • 7 - once bust, it takes years for the excess to be purged from the system

  • History of bubbles
  • Predicting bubbles

    • skipped most of this, he reviews cycles of generations (39-yrs), geopolitics (35-yrs), innovation (45-yr) and boom/bust (10-yr)

    • spending wave a function of births over time and spending throughout lifetime

  • Biggest bubble of our lifetime
  • Profiting from the sale of a lifetime

    • Investments



      • Invest in:





        • High-quality, long-term government bonds (T-bills)



        • high-quality CDs



        • AAA corporate bonds





      • Don't invest in:





        • utility stocks, junk bonds, stocks, real estate, Gold/commodities






    • Business



      • cash and cash flow are critical to surviving


      • identify segments you can dominate


      • clearly define your customers


      • be lean and mean


      • defer major capital expenditures


      • focus on short-term investments


      • sell non-strategic real estate


      • identify weakest competitors to pick up their assets when they go under


      • fire your bottom tier of employees



    • Real Estate



      • keep real estate only if you plan to stay in it for many years



    • Emerging Markets



      • invest in India and Southeast Asia



re Economics, Investing